Part 1
montessorimuddle.org
In Reality
www.nature.com
Thomas Robert Malthus published An Essay on the Principle of Population is counter-arguable because his theory could both be used and could not be used to predict future population issues with several reasons. His theory could be used because of three main reasons.
First, population has been rising quickly as predicted by Malthus. This population growth is believed to link to the limited use of contraception, establishment of policies, economic decisions, and cultural beliefs that support population growth, and the portrayal of demographic transition model referring to Stage 2 or early Stage 3. The idea of limited use of contraception originated from Malthus theory. It educated the public about the importance of family planning, and it lessened the penalties for promoting birth control. In fact, there is an ongoing policy that promotes pregnancy in Taiwan with provision of twenty thousand to the family with new-born baby. As for cultural beliefs, Christians’ belief contributes to the population growth in the way that Bible states the number of child you has, the higher dignity you has. The prediction made by Malthus is believed to link to demographic transition in Stage 2 or early Stage 3 that has a rapidly declining death rates and very high birth rates, which produce very high natural increase. During Malthus’s time, only a few relatively wealthy countries had entered stage 2 of the demographic transition. Nowadays most of the poor countries passed stage 2 and demographers believe his theory could be formulated as a base to expand the prediction of the future population issues. It resulted from the Industrial Revolution or the innovative improvements in medical sources. As a second reason, food supply has increased, but it has not kept up with population increase. This general growth of food supply as predicted by Malthus is influenced by many factors, including failure to adopt agricultural innovation, owing to political policies, economic decisions, cultural beliefs, conversion of farmland for urban use, environmental degradation, conversion of life-supporting crops to cash crops, rising fuel costs will slow down growth of food production and distribution, and climate change cause to decrease production. Malthus’ theory was fairly accurate by pointing out the economic decision made by people would shift to cash crops from life-supporting crops for money and the influence of climate change to the environmental degradation through drought, overgrazing, and insufficient fresh water to farm. The third reason is that there are other limiting factors on population in addition to food. For population growth, it is believe that poverty, hunger, and other social welfare problems associated with lack of economic development are a result of unjust social and economic institutions, not population growth. The population growth is also endangers by the resource overuse.
While there are Neo-Malthusians who believe his theory as valid, other geographers believe Malthus’ theory cannot be used to predict future population issues because of three reasons. First, population growth has not been rising exponentially that links to expanded use of contraception, political policies, economic decisions, cultural beliefs that limit population growth, and demographic transition model, referring to late Stages 3,4, or 5. Through the expanded use of contraception, nowadays people get widely educated on the birth control and that refers to Stages 3, 4, or 5 of the demographic transition model, which indicates the decreasing growth and low growth because of the low birth rates. The higher expenses to raise kids also limit the population growth. Second reason is that food supply has grown faster than predicted by Malthus. Malthus failed to take into account of the new technologies, greater efficiency, green revolution, expansion of agricultural lands, and human ability to create new techniques into his predictions. Industrial Revolution was the major factor that contributed to the innovation of technologies that includes mechanization, irrigation , industrial agriculture, factory farming, multicropping, and more. Improvements of farming and production of food outnumbered what Malthus expected, which creates flaws in his predictions. Third reason is that our ability to preserve food and distribute food to areas of need is much greater than during Malthus’ time. Human life has improved much more than the time back then. Improved food preservation and methods of transportation made possible to distribute the food more equally to different parts of the world with higher efficiency than before.
First, population has been rising quickly as predicted by Malthus. This population growth is believed to link to the limited use of contraception, establishment of policies, economic decisions, and cultural beliefs that support population growth, and the portrayal of demographic transition model referring to Stage 2 or early Stage 3. The idea of limited use of contraception originated from Malthus theory. It educated the public about the importance of family planning, and it lessened the penalties for promoting birth control. In fact, there is an ongoing policy that promotes pregnancy in Taiwan with provision of twenty thousand to the family with new-born baby. As for cultural beliefs, Christians’ belief contributes to the population growth in the way that Bible states the number of child you has, the higher dignity you has. The prediction made by Malthus is believed to link to demographic transition in Stage 2 or early Stage 3 that has a rapidly declining death rates and very high birth rates, which produce very high natural increase. During Malthus’s time, only a few relatively wealthy countries had entered stage 2 of the demographic transition. Nowadays most of the poor countries passed stage 2 and demographers believe his theory could be formulated as a base to expand the prediction of the future population issues. It resulted from the Industrial Revolution or the innovative improvements in medical sources. As a second reason, food supply has increased, but it has not kept up with population increase. This general growth of food supply as predicted by Malthus is influenced by many factors, including failure to adopt agricultural innovation, owing to political policies, economic decisions, cultural beliefs, conversion of farmland for urban use, environmental degradation, conversion of life-supporting crops to cash crops, rising fuel costs will slow down growth of food production and distribution, and climate change cause to decrease production. Malthus’ theory was fairly accurate by pointing out the economic decision made by people would shift to cash crops from life-supporting crops for money and the influence of climate change to the environmental degradation through drought, overgrazing, and insufficient fresh water to farm. The third reason is that there are other limiting factors on population in addition to food. For population growth, it is believe that poverty, hunger, and other social welfare problems associated with lack of economic development are a result of unjust social and economic institutions, not population growth. The population growth is also endangers by the resource overuse.
While there are Neo-Malthusians who believe his theory as valid, other geographers believe Malthus’ theory cannot be used to predict future population issues because of three reasons. First, population growth has not been rising exponentially that links to expanded use of contraception, political policies, economic decisions, cultural beliefs that limit population growth, and demographic transition model, referring to late Stages 3,4, or 5. Through the expanded use of contraception, nowadays people get widely educated on the birth control and that refers to Stages 3, 4, or 5 of the demographic transition model, which indicates the decreasing growth and low growth because of the low birth rates. The higher expenses to raise kids also limit the population growth. Second reason is that food supply has grown faster than predicted by Malthus. Malthus failed to take into account of the new technologies, greater efficiency, green revolution, expansion of agricultural lands, and human ability to create new techniques into his predictions. Industrial Revolution was the major factor that contributed to the innovation of technologies that includes mechanization, irrigation , industrial agriculture, factory farming, multicropping, and more. Improvements of farming and production of food outnumbered what Malthus expected, which creates flaws in his predictions. Third reason is that our ability to preserve food and distribute food to areas of need is much greater than during Malthus’ time. Human life has improved much more than the time back then. Improved food preservation and methods of transportation made possible to distribute the food more equally to different parts of the world with higher efficiency than before.
Part 2
Demographic Transition Model
searchpp.com
Country A and Country B are at different stages of the demographic transition and economic development with different positive impact and negative impact they both brings to the society in the population pyramids. Country A could be determined to be in the Stage 2 with its trait of high birth rate, falling death rate, and youthful population that usually characterizes the developing country. With the country’s expanding workforce from the youthful population, it brings creativity, receptivity to change, and cheerfulness in the society. The sufficient amount of workforce and youthful population also grant the society to be less concern for the need for immigrant labor and elder social safety net like Social Security. This eradicate the time for the government to promote immigration. With such benefits, there are also negative impact behind the rapid birth growth that includes high youth dependency ratio, strain on resources, low literacy rate for women, and fewer women in the compensated workforce. High youth dependency indicates the need for the society to sustain the youthful generations both in the education and social health care program. Another problem is that there is concern over the adequacy of the resources to accommodate with the rapid population growth. The high birth rate also indicates the low access to education and workforce for the women in the society. Women play an important role in the change of birth rate of the country because the proper education leads women to construct a family planning and to avoid the unwanted pregnancy.
On the other hand, Country B could be determined to be in Stage 4 from the low birth rate, low death rate, and aging population that characterize the developed country. The graph indicate educated workforce, low youth dependency ratio, more women in the compensated workforce, tendency to spend discretionary income on needs other than education, and might need immigrant labor. The averaged out number of people in each generation allow the access to education to all people equally, even for women. This involvement of education for women also stimulates the higher women workforce. When more laborers are required, immigrant labor could be the substitute and this could even increase the chance of local laborers to take higher-order jobs with higher skills and more experiences they have gained from education. Apart from benefits, Country B encounters several problems as well. Country B has higher elder dependency ratio, possible future labor shortage, and greater need to fund elder social safety net. The slowly aging of population contributes to the higher elder dependency ratio that amplifies the need for younger generation to support the elders through taxes to be used in social health programs. The decrease in birth rate means the possible future labor shortage and would require the country to establish a tactic to help sustain the economy of the country.
On the other hand, Country B could be determined to be in Stage 4 from the low birth rate, low death rate, and aging population that characterize the developed country. The graph indicate educated workforce, low youth dependency ratio, more women in the compensated workforce, tendency to spend discretionary income on needs other than education, and might need immigrant labor. The averaged out number of people in each generation allow the access to education to all people equally, even for women. This involvement of education for women also stimulates the higher women workforce. When more laborers are required, immigrant labor could be the substitute and this could even increase the chance of local laborers to take higher-order jobs with higher skills and more experiences they have gained from education. Apart from benefits, Country B encounters several problems as well. Country B has higher elder dependency ratio, possible future labor shortage, and greater need to fund elder social safety net. The slowly aging of population contributes to the higher elder dependency ratio that amplifies the need for younger generation to support the elders through taxes to be used in social health programs. The decrease in birth rate means the possible future labor shortage and would require the country to establish a tactic to help sustain the economy of the country.